Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook February 13, 2026

A warm weather system is forecast to move into the Grand River watershed beginning Saturday, February 14 and continue through to Thursday, February 19, bringing above freezing daytime temperatures and the potential for rain. These weather conditions are expected to result in increased river flows throughout the watershed and weakening or breaking up of river ice. There is still uncertainty in both the timing and extent of the warm weather and precipitation, and how much precipitation will fall as rain or snow. 

Flood Outlook

Snow monitoring indicates that the water content of the snowpack is higher than normal across the watershed. While the snowpack will be able to absorb some rain, prolonged above freezing temperatures will result in some snow melt. The risk of flooding increases if rainfall accompanies a rapid snowmelt event.

Due to the uncertainty in the track and timing of this weather system, the impact of this potential flood event is uncertain at this time, however there is a risk of flooding, including rapid rises in water levels caused by ice jams as river ice breaks up.

Risk of Ice Jams

While ice conditions this year are less significant than they were in in 2018 and 2019, much of the river system is ice covered and the potential for ice jams to form exists. As ice moves through the rivers there is the risk of ice-jams in slow-moving reaches of watercourses, which may lead to localized flooding, particularly in areas that are prone to ice jams. Ice jams can form quickly and lead to sudden increases in water levels and flooding.  Lake Erie is mostly ice covered, increasing the risk of ice jam related flooding at the mouth of the Grand River.

GRCA Reser?voirs 

GRCA reservoirs are at their normal operating level for this time of year and will be operated to manage runoff and reduce downstream flooding.

Stay Safe 

The public is encouraged to exercise extreme caution around all local waterways. Banks adjacent to rivers and creeks are very slippery and, when combined with cold, fast-moving water, pose a serious hazard. Ice cover will be weakened and eroded due to thawing conditions and fluctuating water levels. Ice-covered waterbodies should always be considered unsafe. Parents are reminded to keep their children and pets away from all watercourses. Recreational users on local waterways should be aware of the current conditions and exercise additional caution.

River conditions and weather forecasts are being monitored closely, and additional flood messages will be issued as needed. This message will remain in effect until 12 p.m. on Thursday, February 19, 2026. 

For further information refer to GRCA’s website at www.grandriver.ca

• For current river flow, refer to the “River Data” section.
• For a more information on water safety, refer to the “Learn & Get Involved / Water Safety” section.