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GRCA Flood Message #1 – Flood Watch
Date and Time Issued: December 10, 2021 3:30 p.m.
Combined High Lake Erie Level Flood Warning and River Flood Watch Message
The Grand River Conservation Authority is issuing the following combined High Lake Erie Level Flood Warning and River Flood Watch message. The Watershed Conditions Statement for Lake Erie remains in effect.
A strong weather system is forecast to move across the Grand River watershed starting the evening of Friday, December 10, 2021 and through the day on Saturday. The forecast includes warm weather, heavy rain and high winds. Air temperatures are expected to rise to the mid-teens on Saturday and total rainfall associated with this system may be between 25 and 45 mm. These conditions are expected to result in snowmelt and elevated flows in rivers and streams across the watershed, as well as a storm surge event for Lake Erie.
High Lake Erie Level Flood Warning
The Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry (NDMNRF) has advised of strong winds forecast from the south and southwest for the Lower Great Lakes beginning in the early morning on Saturday, December 11, 2021.
The NDMNRF forecast is predicting the following in the vicinity of Port Maitland:
Lake Erie current elevation at Port Maitland: 174.5 m (IGLD 1985)
Lake Erie estimated to peak at: 176.3 m (IGLD 1985), excluding waves
Lake Erie Expected time of peak: Saturday, December 11, 2021 in the evening
Critical Level: 175.5 m (IGLD 1985)
Forecast (estimated) Peak Lake Level: 0.8 m above the critical level, excluding waves
Flood Zone Area of Impact: Zone 4 flood zone along Lake Erie shoreline
The Haldimand County Flood Coordinator is requested to warn affected residents and businesses up to and including Lake Erie Flood Zone 4, along the Grand River downstream of Dunnville Dam, in the community of Port Maitland, and along the lakeshore and to monitor roads along the lakeshore and implement closures as necessary. Waves in excess of 1.6 m are expected to accompany this event.
Riverine Flood Watch Message
The combination of snowmelt and rainfall on saturated or frozen ground is expected to increase river flows, resulting in flooding in low-lying areas adjacent to rivers and streams typically prone to flooding. Conditions are being monitored closely.
The major reservoirs at Belwood Lake, Conestogo Lake, Guelph Lake, Luther Marsh, Woolwich, Laurel Creek, and Shade’s Mills will be used to manage runoff from this event and help reduce potential flooding downstream. Water will be released from these reservoirs over the coming week.
Stay Safe
The public is reminded to stay away from the Lake Erie shoreline due to strong wave action and elevated water levels and follow the direction of local emergency officials. The public is advised to familiarize themselves with flood warning zone mapping for the Lake Erie shoreline available on Haldimand County’s website.
The public is also advised to use extreme caution around all water bodies. Banks adjacent to rivers and creeks are very slippery at this time, and when combined with current weather conditions, pose a serious hazard. Parents are reminded to keep their children and pets away from all watercourses and water bodies.
This message will remain in effect until noon on Monday, December 13, 2021. Updated flood messages will be issued as conditions develop and better forecast information becomes available.